• March 26th, 2016

Econometric – time series analysis and forecasting using STATA.

Paper, Order, or Assignment Requirements
Your objective is to use a time-series data and ARIMA model as your benchmark model and discuss the results of your forecasted data. For further instructions see below:
(a) From Bloomberg Terminals (or IMF or OECD), collect a time series data of quarterly Inflation rate for the country assigned to you during the last 50 years.

(b) Produce a time series plot of your data. Explain the trend you notice from the

(c) Produce Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function
(PACF) plot of your data and identify the order of AR and MA.

(d) Identify what type of ARIMA model you believe best fits the data and explain why?

(e) Use your selected model in forecasting the Inflation until the year 2050? Show graphically the effect of financial crisis (e.g. year 2008) on your forecasting.

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